Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Wildlife Protected Areas; A Case Study of Maasai Mara National Game Reserve, Kenya

Abstract

Unpredictable temperature and precipitation patterns brought on by climate change are becoming more widely acknowledged as one of the major variables influencing wildlife populations in protected areas like parks and reserves. The wildlife populations that sustain the thriving tourism business may decline as a result of these temperature and rainfall variations brought on by extreme flooding and drought occurrences. Protected areas form the bedrock of the tourism industry in Kenya, keeping in mind the tourism industry is characterized as heavily ‘nature-based in Kenya’. Based on chaos-complexity theory, this study investigated the effects of rainfall and temperature variations on wildlife population dynamics in Maasai Mara National Game Reserve (MMNGR). MMNGR is a top premier wildlife park in Kenya, recording major visits. The study adopted an explanatory research design. Rainfall and temperature data was obtained from 15 rain gauges located in MMNGR operated by World Wide Fund (WWF) and Friends for Conservation. Wildlife population data was collected from the Directorate of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS). Changes in vegetation cover were determined from satellite imagery using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) method. This method was used to measure changes in vegetation cover that are likely to have been influenced by rainfall and temperature trends. The NDVI images from the years 1975 to 2018 were processed to obtain specific NDVI values per land cover category. NDVI values detected any changes in vegetation cover. The mean monthly rainfall and air temperature in Maasai National Game Reserve for the last 54 years were analyzed. Time series was applied to analyze rainfall and temperature data. Findings indicate that rainfall and temperature variations positively contribute to influencing the decline in wildlife populations, as there could be other factors too. The study findings suggest that high amounts of vegetation cover, as indicated by NDVI maps, prompt high survival rates for wildlife and increased populations and vice versa. This study therefore proposes that extremely high and low rainfall totals and temperature trends are likely to increase wildlife mortality, hence reducing wildlife survival rates and consequently population. The implications will have a direct influence on the tourism industry as visitors are highly likely to shift their visits to other tourism destinations with abundant wildlife populations.